Gartner has revealed its top eight cybersecurity predictions for 2024 and beyond. Among the top predictions, generative AI (GenAI) adoption will collapse the cybersecurity skills gap and reduce employee-driven cybersecurity incidents; two-thirds of global 100 organisations will extend directors and officers insurance to cybersecurity leaders due to personal legal exposure; and battling malinformation will cost enterprises more than $500 billion.
Deepti Gopal, Director Analyst at Gartner, said, “As we start moving beyond what’s possible with GenAI, solid opportunities are emerging to help solve a number of perennial issues plaguing cybersecurity, particularly the skills shortage and unsecure human behavior. The scope of the top predictions this year is clearly not on technology, as the human element continues to gain far more attention. Any CISO looking to build an effective and sustainable cybersecurity program must make this a priority.”
Gartner recommends that cybersecurity leaders build the following strategic planning assumptions into their security strategies for the next two years.
By 2028, the adoption of GenAI will collapse the skills gap, removing the need for specialised education from 50% of entry-level cybersecurity positions.
GenAI augments will change how organisations hire and teach cybersecurity workers looking for the right aptitude, as much as the right education. Mainstream platforms already offer conversational augments but will evolve. Gartner recommends cybersecurity teams focus on internal use cases that support users as they work; coordinate with HR partners; and identify adjacent talent for more critical cybersecurity roles.
By 2026, enterprises combining GenAI with an integrated platforms-based architecture in security behavior and culture programs (SBCP) will experience 40% fewer employee-driven cybersecurity incidents.
Organisations are increasingly focused on personalised engagement as an essential component of an effective SBCP. GenAI has the potential to generate hyper personalised content and training materials that take into context an employee’s unique attributes. According to Gartner, this will increase the likelihood of employees adopting more secure behaviors in their day-to-day work, resulting in fewer cybersecurity incidents.
“Organisations that haven’t yet embraced GenAI capabilities should evaluate their current external security awareness partner to understand how it is leveraging GenAI as part of its solution roadmap,” said Gopal.
Through 2026, 75% of organisations will exclude unmanaged, legacy, and cyber-physical systems from their zero trust strategies.
Under a zero-trust strategy, users and endpoints receive only the access needed to do their jobs and are continuously monitored based on evolving threats. In production or mission-critical environments, these concepts do not universally translate for unmanaged devices, legacy applications and cyber-physical systems (CPS) engineered to perform specific tasks in unique safety and reliability-centric environments.
By 2027, two-thirds of global 100 organisations will extend directors and officers (D&O) insurance to cybersecurity leaders due to personal legal exposure.
New laws and regulations — such as the SEC’s cybersecurity disclosure and reporting rules — expose cybersecurity leaders to personal liability. The roles and responsibilities of the CISO need to be updated for associated reporting and disclosures. Gartner recommends organisations explore the benefits of covering the role with D&O insurance, as well as other insurance and compensation, to mitigate personal liability, professional risk and legal expenses.
By 2028, enterprise spending on battling malinformation will surpass $500 billion, cannibalising 50% of marketing and cybersecurity budgets.
The combination of AI, analytics, behavioral science, social media, the Internet of Things and other technologies enable bad actors to create and spread highly effective, mass-customised malinformation (or misinformation). Gartner recommends CISOs define the responsibilities for governing, devising, and executing enterprise-wide anti-malinformation programs, and invest in tools and techniques that combat the issue using chaos engineering to test resilience.
Through 2026, 40% of identity and access management (IAM) leaders will take over the primary responsibility for detecting and responding to IAM-related breaches.
IAM leaders often struggle to articulate security and business value to drive accurate investment and are not involved in security resourcing and budgeting discussions. As IAM leaders continue to grow in importance, they will evolve in different directions, each with increased responsibility, visibility, and influence. Gartner recommends CISOs break traditional IT and security silos by giving stakeholders visibility into the role IAM plays by aligning the IAM program and security initiatives.
By 2027, 70% of organisations will combine data loss prevention and insider risk management disciplines with IAM context to identify suspicious behavior more effectively.
Increased interest in consolidated controls has prompted vendors to develop capabilities that represent an overlap between user behavior-focused controls and data loss prevention. This introduces a more comprehensive set of capabilities for security teams to create a single policy for dual use in data security and insider risk mitigation. Gartner recommends organisations identify data risk and identity risk and use them in tandem as the primary directive for strategic data security.
By 2027, 30% of cybersecurity functions will redesign application security to be consumed directly by non-cyber experts and owned by application owners.
The volume, variety and context of applications that business technologists and distributed delivery teams create means potential for exposures well beyond what dedicated application security teams can handle.
“To bridge the gap, cybersecurity functions must build minimum effective expertise in these teams, using a combination of technology and training to generate only as much competence as is required to make cyber risk-informed decisions autonomously,” said Gopal.
